Albania vs. Finland: Draw at halftime?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$1.3K
$225.57
51.1¢ → 100¢
+96% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 51.1¢ | $508.7 | $951.7 | +$443 | 55% 1693-1391 (3084) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 47.7¢ | $357.11 | $248.76 | -$108.35 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $51 | $64.81 | +$13.81 | 33% 563-1169 (1732) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $19.04 | $38.06 | +$19.02 | 48% 2298-2502 (4800) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $28.57 | $36.31 | +$7.74 | 47% 1704-1945 (3649) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $4.7 | +$2.1 | 41% 589-849 (1438) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $147.3 | $0.15 | -$147.15 | 32% 565-1192 (1757) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $9.6 | $0 | -$4.6 | 49% 1307-1343 (2650) |
Invested
$508.7
Value
$951.7
PnL
+$443
Record
55%
1693-1391 (3084)
Invested
$357.11
Value
$248.76
PnL
-$108.35
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Invested
$51
Value
$64.81
PnL
+$13.81
Record
33%
563-1169 (1732)
Invested
$19.04
Value
$38.06
PnL
+$19.02
Record
48%
2298-2502 (4800)
Invested
$28.57
Value
$36.31
PnL
+$7.74
Record
47%
1704-1945 (3649)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$2.1
Record
41%
589-849 (1438)
Invested
$147.3
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$147.15
Record
32%
565-1192 (1757)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$0
PnL
-$4.6
Record
49%
1307-1343 (2650)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.