Finland leading at halftime?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $372 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$371.8
$2.96
82.6¢ → 100¢
+21% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 84¢ | $97.02 | $115.44 | +$18.42 | 34% 592-1164 (1756) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $82.76 | $98.47 | +$15.71 | 33% 563-1169 (1732) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $87.96 | $75.58 | -$12.37 | 55% 1693-1391 (3084) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $32.4 | $39.98 | +$7.58 | 32% 565-1192 (1757) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $23.5 | $24.99 | +$1.49 | 56% 4529-3502 (8031) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.9¢ | $37.04 | $10.24 | -$26.81 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $4.1 | $4.7 | +$0.6 | 41% 589-849 (1438) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.6¢ | $3.01 | $2.39 | -$0.61 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $1.05 | $0 | -$1.05 | 49% 1307-1343 (2650) |
Invested
$97.02
Value
$115.44
PnL
+$18.42
Record
34%
592-1164 (1756)
Invested
$82.76
Value
$98.47
PnL
+$15.71
Record
33%
563-1169 (1732)
Invested
$87.96
Value
$75.58
PnL
-$12.37
Record
55%
1693-1391 (3084)
Invested
$32.4
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$7.58
Record
32%
565-1192 (1757)
RN1<$100Invested
$23.5
Value
$24.99
PnL
+$1.49
Record
56%
4529-3502 (8031)
Invested
$37.04
Value
$10.24
PnL
-$26.81
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$0.6
Record
41%
589-849 (1438)
Invested
$3.01
Value
$2.39
PnL
-$0.61
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.05
Record
49%
1307-1343 (2650)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.