Will Finland win on 2026-11-12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 80¢ · $299 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$298.77
$3.26
78.2¢ → 79.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 78¢ | $189.99 | $192.17 | +$2.17 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $57.57 | $54.47 | +$0.3 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $31.2 | $31.6 | +$0.4 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $15.2 | $15.58 | +$0.38 | 61% 921-592 (1513) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $4.95 | $4.95 | +$0 | 37% 339-567 (906) |
Invested
$189.99
Value
$192.17
PnL
+$2.17
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
Invested
$57.57
Value
$54.47
PnL
+$0.3
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$31.2
Value
$31.6
PnL
+$0.4
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$15.58
PnL
+$0.38
Record
61%
921-592 (1513)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
339-567 (906)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.