Exact Score: Albania 2 - 0 Finland?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 91¢ · $295 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$295.14
$4.25
89.6¢ → 90.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382 | Noavg 90¢ | $116.18 | $116.18 | +$0 | 40% 78-117 (195) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $77.78 | $78.65 | +$0.87 | 59% 3535-2417 (5952) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $32.36 | $32.73 | +$0.36 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $31.42 | $31.42 | +$0 | 54% 994-856 (1850) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.83 | $18.62 | -$0.21 | 33% 558-1111 (1669) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $6.98 | $7.06 | +$0.08 | 41% 552-797 (1349) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $6.18 | $6.18 | -$0 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $1.16 | $4.3 | +$3.14 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
Invested
$116.18
Value
$116.18
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
78-117 (195)
Invested
$77.78
Value
$78.65
PnL
+$0.87
Record
59%
3535-2417 (5952)
Invested
$32.36
Value
$32.73
PnL
+$0.36
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$31.42
Value
$31.42
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
994-856 (1850)
Invested
$18.83
Value
$18.62
PnL
-$0.21
Record
33%
558-1111 (1669)
Invested
$6.98
Value
$7.06
PnL
+$0.08
Record
41%
552-797 (1349)
Invested
$6.18
Value
$6.18
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
Invested
$1.16
Value
$4.3
PnL
+$3.14
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.