Exact Score: Albania 1 - 2 Finland?
3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 30%
$1.9K
$42.78
95¢ → 100¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+1 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 95¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$80.94 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $76.99 | $88.47 | +$11.49 | 56% 4529-3502 (8031) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $80.85 | $84.79 | +$3.94 | 49% 1307-1343 (2650) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $17.11 | $17.13 | +$0.03 | 59% 3556-2429 (5985) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $217.4 | $15.1 | +$6.28 | 48% 2298-2502 (4800) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $2.95 | $2.26 | -$0.69 | 32% 565-1192 (1757) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $2.86 | $2.23 | -$0.63 | 33% 563-1169 (1732) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $36.14 | $1.52 | -$34.61 | 34% 592-1164 (1756) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $20.73 | $0.87 | -$19.86 | 33% 585-1187 (1772) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $4.28 | $0.18 | -$4.1 | 47% 1704-1945 (3649) |
Invested
$1,619.78
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$80.94
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$76.99
Value
$88.47
PnL
+$11.49
Record
56%
4529-3502 (8031)
Invested
$80.85
Value
$84.79
PnL
+$3.94
Record
49%
1307-1343 (2650)
Invested
$17.11
Value
$17.13
PnL
+$0.03
Record
59%
3556-2429 (5985)
Invested
$217.4
Value
$15.1
PnL
+$6.28
Record
48%
2298-2502 (4800)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.26
PnL
-$0.69
Record
32%
565-1192 (1757)
Invested
$2.86
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.63
Record
33%
563-1169 (1732)
Invested
$36.14
Value
$1.52
PnL
-$34.61
Record
34%
592-1164 (1756)
Invested
$20.73
Value
$0.87
PnL
-$19.86
Record
33%
585-1187 (1772)
Invested
$4.28
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$4.1
Record
47%
1704-1945 (3649)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.