Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Albania 0 - 1 Finland?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 9.5¢ · $166 held · ends Nov 12

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$165.88

Combined PnL

$1.74

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$73.57

Total Shares77

Combined PnL+$4.45

Yes7 traders

Total Value$92.31

Total Shares1,026

Combined PnL-$2.71

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 91¢	$65.15	$65.15	+$0	32% 542-1133 (1675)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$42.39	$42.06	-$0.33	33% 539-1115 (1654)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$35	$32.62	-$2.38	33% 556-1140 (1696)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$10.1	$10.1	+$0	51% 2572-2488 (5060)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 90¢	$27.97	$8.42	+$4.45	48% 2245-2429 (4674)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$3.26	$3.26	+$0	54% 997-856 (1853)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.69	$1.69	+$0	41% 562-806 (1368)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.5	$1.5	+$0	26% 153-428 (581)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.09	$1.09	-$0	49% 1260-1292 (2552)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$65.15

Value

$65.15

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

542-1133 (1675)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.39

Value

$42.06

PnL

-$0.33

Record

33%

539-1115 (1654)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35

Value

$32.62

PnL

-$2.38

Record

33%

556-1140 (1696)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.1

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2572-2488 (5060)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$27.97

Value

$8.42

PnL

+$4.45

Record

48%

2245-2429 (4674)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.26

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.69

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

562-806 (1368)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

153-428 (581)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1260-1292 (2552)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.