Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Albania vs. Finland end in a draw?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 31¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 89%
$1.0K
$4.06
30.2¢ → 30.5¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+39 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $360.89 | $358.1 | -$2.79 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
NM NM-PCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $283.7 | $287.48 | +$3.78 | 59% 3517-2395 (5912) |
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $232.81 | $236.69 | +$3.88 | 25% 136-410 (546) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $41.4 | $42.09 | +$0.69 | 53% 177-159 (336) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $21.47 | $21.83 | +$0.36 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $17.92 | $19.2 | +$1.28 | 25% 44-135 (179) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $76.77 | $14.15 | -$2.95 | 47% 1845-2082 (3927) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $13.13 | $13.35 | +$0.22 | 53% 806-703 (1509) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $9.78 | $9.37 | -$0.41 | 37% 33-56 (89) |
Invested
$360.89
Value
$358.1
PnL
-$2.79
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Invested
$283.7
Value
$287.48
PnL
+$3.78
Record
59%
3517-2395 (5912)
Invested
$232.81
Value
$236.69
PnL
+$3.88
Record
25%
136-410 (546)
Invested
$41.4
Value
$42.09
PnL
+$0.69
Record
53%
177-159 (336)
Invested
$21.47
Value
$21.83
PnL
+$0.36
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
Invested
$17.92
Value
$19.2
PnL
+$1.28
Record
25%
44-135 (179)
Invested
$76.77
Value
$14.15
PnL
-$2.95
Record
47%
1845-2082 (3927)
Invested
$13.13
Value
$13.35
PnL
+$0.22
Record
53%
806-703 (1509)
Invested
$9.78
Value
$9.37
PnL
-$0.41
Record
37%
33-56 (89)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.