Albania vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 59¢ · $825 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$825.04
$13.16
57.3¢ → 58.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-16 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 59¢ | $236 | $234 | -$2 | 54% 278-237 (515) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 57.3¢ | $138.71 | $141.63 | +$2.91 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 54.5¢ | $118.85 | $128.59 | +$9.74 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $122.93 | $124.43 | +$1.5 | 33% 553-1135 (1688) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $82.07 | $83.07 | +$1 | 33% 558-1111 (1669) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $49.41 | $50.26 | +$0.85 | 52% 773-714 (1487) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 54.8¢ | $26.24 | $28.26 | +$2.02 | 54% 994-856 (1850) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.7¢ | $30 | $26.32 | -$3.68 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 53.3¢ | $7.67 | $8.48 | +$0.81 | 41% 552-797 (1349) |
0xheavy888Invested
$236
Value
$234
PnL
-$2
Record
54%
278-237 (515)
Invested
$138.71
Value
$141.63
PnL
+$2.91
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$118.85
Value
$128.59
PnL
+$9.74
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$122.93
Value
$124.43
PnL
+$1.5
Record
33%
553-1135 (1688)
Invested
$82.07
Value
$83.07
PnL
+$1
Record
33%
558-1111 (1669)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$49.41
Value
$50.26
PnL
+$0.85
Record
52%
773-714 (1487)
Invested
$26.24
Value
$28.26
PnL
+$2.02
Record
54%
994-856 (1850)
Invested
$30
Value
$26.32
PnL
-$3.68
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
Invested
$7.67
Value
$8.48
PnL
+$0.81
Record
41%
552-797 (1349)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.