Will Albania win on 2026-11-12?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$2.1K
$44.38
48.1¢ → 50.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 48¢ | $868.95 | $905.16 | +$36.21 | 34% 164-316 (480) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 48.2¢ | $380.72 | $394.59 | +$13.87 | 50% 1384-1403 (2787) |
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 52¢ | $243.85 | $239.16 | -$4.69 | 16% 64-346 (410) |
NM NM-PCTR | Yesavg 52¢ | $243.52 | $238.83 | -$4.68 | 60% 3439-2335 (5774) |
OD Oddstorm | Noavg 48.1¢ | $138.95 | $144.35 | +$5.39 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.5¢ | $96.37 | $95.37 | -$1 | 48% 752-814 (1566) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $52.6 | $51.59 | -$1.01 | 61% 891-567 (1458) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $5 | +$0.3 | 29% 157-376 (533) |
Invested
$868.95
Value
$905.16
PnL
+$36.21
Record
34%
164-316 (480)
Invested
$380.72
Value
$394.59
PnL
+$13.87
Record
50%
1384-1403 (2787)
Invested
$243.85
Value
$239.16
PnL
-$4.69
Record
16%
64-346 (410)
Invested
$243.52
Value
$238.83
PnL
-$4.68
Record
60%
3439-2335 (5774)
Invested
$138.95
Value
$144.35
PnL
+$5.39
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$96.37
Value
$95.37
PnL
-$1
Record
48%
752-814 (1566)
Invested
$52.6
Value
$51.59
PnL
-$1.01
Record
61%
891-567 (1458)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
29%
157-376 (533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.