Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will FK Zorya Luhansk win on 2026-11-02?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 25%
$2.3K
-$3.43
51.9¢ → 49.5¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntoriCTR | Yesavg 51.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$42.75 | 44% 6439-8045 (14484) |
NO Notradecopy | Noavg 47¢ | $497.1 | $528.83 | +$31.73 | 49% 3953-4141 (8094) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382 | Noavg 48.1¢ | $207.87 | $216 | +$8.13 | 46% 9226-10934 (20160) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 51¢ | $389.05 | $196.47 | -$1.92 | 51% 17604-16613 (34217) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 50¢ | $152.59 | $152.59 | +$0 | 50% 26427-26254 (52681) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 48.5¢ | $42.29 | $21.36 | +$0.85 | 62% 1225-749 (1974) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 49.8¢ | $24.9 | $15 | +$0.5 | 58% 43592-31705 (75297) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $1.08 | $1.13 | +$0.03 | 53% 6368-5753 (12121) |
Invested
$1,174.27
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$42.75
Record
44%
6439-8045 (14484)
Invested
$497.1
Value
$528.83
PnL
+$31.73
Record
49%
3953-4141 (8094)
Invested
$207.87
Value
$216
PnL
+$8.13
Record
46%
9226-10934 (20160)
Invested
$389.05
Value
$196.47
PnL
-$1.92
Record
51%
17604-16613 (34217)
Invested
$152.59
Value
$152.59
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26427-26254 (52681)
Invested
$42.29
Value
$21.36
PnL
+$0.85
Record
62%
1225-749 (1974)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$24.9
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.5
Record
58%
43592-31705 (75297)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.13
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
6368-5753 (12121)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.