FK Zorya Luhansk vs. FK Epitsentr Dunaivtsi: O/U 2.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 2

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$250.94

Smart Money Entry

68.8¢ → 91.5¢

+33% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,804

Combined PnL+$303.37

Over1 trader

Total Value$31.84

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$52.43

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO fortuneking	Underavg 86¢	$885.77	$890.92	+$5.15	59% 788-559 (1347)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 45.4¢	$528.24	$478.06	+$238.12	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
FE ferdinand2	Underavg 44¢	$101.24	$197.89	+$59.83	51% 997-961 (1958)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 52.1¢	$84.27	$31.84	-$52.43	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 86¢	$13.1	$13.04	-$0	49% 13479-14174 (27653)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 69¢	$1.14	$1.42	+$0.28	45% 12902-15667 (28569)

fortuneking

Under

Invested

$885.77

Value

$890.92

PnL

+$5.15

Record

59%

788-559 (1347)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$528.24

Value

$478.06

PnL

+$238.12

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

ferdinand2

Under

Invested

$101.24

Value

$197.89

PnL

+$59.83

Record

51%

997-961 (1958)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$84.27

Value

$31.84

PnL

-$52.43

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$13.1

Value

$13.04

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

13479-14174 (27653)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.28

Record

45%

12902-15667 (28569)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.