Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 72¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$49.16

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 72¢

-12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,372

Combined PnL-$24.06

Yes4 traders

Total Value$566.22

Total Shares2,891

Combined PnL+$73.22

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 84¢	$780.21	$624.17	-$31.21	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 16.8¢	$394.19	$395.43	+$1.24	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 83.9¢	$486.59	$390.07	-$21.07	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
BL BlackMamba08CTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$80.81	$146.85	+$66.05	48% 115-126 (241)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$325.94	$99.24	+$2.72	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ No leg	Noavg 83.7¢	$51.71	$50.38	-$1.34
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17¢	$44.8	$48.86	+$4.06
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100	Noavg 50¢	$46.5	$78.12	+$28.37	56% 193-149 (342)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$115.27	$23.05	+$5.76	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 72.5¢	$21.75	$21.6	-$0.15	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$0.71	$0.89	+$0.18	32% 8577-18346 (26923)

LightParadox

Invested

$780.21

Value

$624.17

PnL

-$31.21

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$394.19

Value

$395.43

PnL

+$1.24

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Flaznorp

Invested

$486.59

Value

$390.07

PnL

-$21.07

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

BlackMamba08CTR

Yes

Invested

$80.81

Value

$146.85

PnL

+$66.05

Record

48%

115-126 (241)

sentrioARB<$100

Invested

$325.94

Value

$99.24

PnL

+$2.72

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

No$51.7183.7¢-$1.34

Yes$44.817¢+$4.06

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100

Invested

$46.5

Value

$78.12

PnL

+$28.37

Record

56%

193-149 (342)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$115.27

Value

$23.05

PnL

+$5.76

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$21.75

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.71

Value

$0.89

PnL

+$0.18

Record

32%

8577-18346 (26923)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.