Will RNK Veres Rivne win on 2026-11-06?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $981 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$980.84
$6.59
94.5¢ → 98.3¢
+4% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tradecraft | Noavg 94.2¢ | $305.89 | $311.64 | +$5.75 | 51% 6438-6217 (12655) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 94.3¢ | $188.56 | $190 | +$1.44 | 50% 1593-1622 (3215) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $211 | $163.16 | -$0.55 | 58% 47031-33914 (80945) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 95.2¢ | $150.48 | $150.1 | -$0.38 | 49% 1535-1615 (3150) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $78.48 | $80.19 | +$1.71 | 51% 26313-24941 (51254) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $59.11 | $59.52 | +$0.41 | 49% 14843-15636 (30479) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $14.47 | $13.03 | -$1.7 | 50% 26083-25738 (51821) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $12.02 | $12.31 | +$0.29 | 50% 21340-21623 (42963) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $1.02 | $0.68 | -$0.34 | 55% 1395-1152 (2547) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $0.24 | $0.2 | -$0.04 | 51% 37958-37206 (75164) |
tradecraftInvested
$305.89
Value
$311.64
PnL
+$5.75
Record
51%
6438-6217 (12655)
Invested
$188.56
Value
$190
PnL
+$1.44
Record
50%
1593-1622 (3215)
VeryLucky888Invested
$211
Value
$163.16
PnL
-$0.55
Record
58%
47031-33914 (80945)
Invested
$150.48
Value
$150.1
PnL
-$0.38
Record
49%
1535-1615 (3150)
Invested
$78.48
Value
$80.19
PnL
+$1.71
Record
51%
26313-24941 (51254)
Invested
$59.11
Value
$59.52
PnL
+$0.41
Record
49%
14843-15636 (30479)
Invested
$14.47
Value
$13.03
PnL
-$1.7
Record
50%
26083-25738 (51821)
Invested
$12.02
Value
$12.31
PnL
+$0.29
Record
50%
21340-21623 (42963)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$0.34
Record
55%
1395-1152 (2547)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$0.04
Record
51%
37958-37206 (75164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.