Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FK Polissia vs. RNK Veres Rivne: Both Teams to Score
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $718 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
2 arb excluded
$718.39
$23.6
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $598.98 | $546.9 | -$52.07 | 51% 26313-24941 (51254) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65¢ | $504.57 | $388 | -$116.57 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $94.4 | $158.9 | +$64.5 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $176 | $76.51 | +$23.5 | 58% 47031-33914 (80945) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Noavg 62.6¢ | $57.16 | $56.67 | -$0.5 | 50% 26083-25738 (51821) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.6¢ | $32.76 | $33.48 | +$0.72 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40¢ | $24.4 | $23.18 | -$1.22 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.1¢ | $35.13 | $35.03 | -$0.1 | 50% 1580-1596 (3176) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $3.08 | $3.28 | +$0.21 | 51% 37958-37206 (75164) |
Invested
$598.98
Value
$546.9
PnL
-$52.07
Record
51%
26313-24941 (51254)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$176
Value
$76.51
PnL
+$23.5
Record
58%
47031-33914 (80945)
Invested
$57.16
Value
$56.67
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
26083-25738 (51821)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.13
Value
$35.03
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
1580-1596 (3176)
Invested
$3.08
Value
$3.28
PnL
+$0.21
Record
51%
37958-37206 (75164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.