Will FK Obolon Kyiv vs. FK Livyi Bereh end in a draw?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 70¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$158.99
-$4.4
72¢ → 69.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 72.4¢ | $119.44 | $116.58 | -$2.87 | 51% 25823-24512 (50335) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 70.6¢ | $27.62 | $27.17 | -$0.45 | 50% 25844-25552 (51396) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.1¢ | $6.68 | $6.34 | -$0.33 | 51% 1398-1364 (2762) |
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $5.16 | $4.77 | -$0.39 | 33% 1166-2332 (3498) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.1¢ | $4.48 | $4.12 | -$0.36 | 50% 21206-21476 (42682) |
Invested
$119.44
Value
$116.58
PnL
-$2.87
Record
51%
25823-24512 (50335)
Invested
$27.62
Value
$27.17
PnL
-$0.45
Record
50%
25844-25552 (51396)
Invested
$6.68
Value
$6.34
PnL
-$0.33
Record
51%
1398-1364 (2762)
Invested
$5.16
Value
$4.77
PnL
-$0.39
Record
33%
1166-2332 (3498)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$4.12
PnL
-$0.36
Record
50%
21206-21476 (42682)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.