Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will FK Karpaty Lviv win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 50¢ · $51 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$50.92
$14.19
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 25.6¢ | $13.5 | $25.82 | +$12.32 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $10 | $9.23 | -$0.51 | 53% 2695-2376 (5071) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $3.51 | $6.62 | +$3.11 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $5.38 | $5.31 | -$0.07 | 51% 38217-37441 (75658) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $8.05 | $3.95 | -$0.65 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
Invested
$13.5
Value
$25.82
PnL
+$12.32
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.23
PnL
-$0.51
Record
53%
2695-2376 (5071)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$6.62
PnL
+$3.11
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
Invested
$5.38
Value
$5.31
PnL
-$0.07
Record
51%
38217-37441 (75658)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$8.05
Value
$3.95
PnL
-$0.65
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.