Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
FK Livyi Bereh vs. FSK Bukovyna Chernivtsi: Both Teams to Score
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 45¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$1.7K
-$3.53
60.7¢ → 44.5¢
-27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 40.4¢ | $670.5 | $1.1K | +$390.7 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 60.8¢ | $947.34 | $560.99 | -$386.35 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $50.5 | $36 | -$14.5 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $16.7 | $24.3 | +$4.37 | 53% 2714-2387 (5101) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $3.3 | $6.4 | +$2.25 | 49% 103-107 (210) |
Invested
$670.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$390.7
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$947.34
Value
$560.99
PnL
-$386.35
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$50.5
Value
$36
PnL
-$14.5
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$16.7
Value
$24.3
PnL
+$4.37
Record
53%
2714-2387 (5101)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$6.4
PnL
+$2.25
Record
49%
103-107 (210)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.