Will FK Kudrivka vs. FK Chornomorets Odesa end in a draw?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 74¢ · $994 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
1 arb excluded
$994.2
-$13.6
74.5¢ → 74¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 75.9¢ | $419.7 | $408.38 | -$11.32 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 71¢ | $189.09 | $197.08 | +$2.66 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Noavg 74.1¢ | $266.74 | $128.26 | -$0.31 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.1¢ | $84.8 | $72.67 | -$12.14 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $43.75 | $55.59 | +$11.83 | |
VE Venusian | Noavg 75.7¢ | $106.1 | $103.72 | -$2.38 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $56.92 | $56.92 | -$0 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 76.2¢ | $55.62 | $53.6 | -$2.02 | 51% 6512-6277 (12789) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 76.6¢ | $23.82 | $22.99 | -$0.82 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $20.21 | $21.07 | +$0.28 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $2.18 | $2.18 | +$0 | 49% 14983-15895 (30878) |
Invested
$419.7
Value
$408.38
PnL
-$11.32
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$189.09
Value
$197.08
PnL
+$2.66
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$266.74
Value
$128.26
PnL
-$0.31
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Both legs:
Invested
$106.1
Value
$103.72
PnL
-$2.38
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$56.92
Value
$56.92
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$55.62
Value
$53.6
PnL
-$2.02
Record
51%
6512-6277 (12789)
Invested
$23.82
Value
$22.99
PnL
-$0.82
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$20.21
Value
$21.07
PnL
+$0.28
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$2.18
Value
$2.18
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
14983-15895 (30878)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.