Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FK Dynamo Kyiv, while the market favors FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (59%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: FK Dynamo Kyiv (-1.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FK Dynamo Kyiv (50%) · FK Dynamo Kyiv at 42¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2

FK Dynamo Kyiv42¢FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih58¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FK Dynamo Kyiv

Consensus Traders

FK Dynamo Kyiv 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$4.9

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 41.5¢

-12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFK Dynamo Kyiv at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FK Dynamo Kyiv

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FK Dynamo Kyiv42%

FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FK Dynamo Kyiv3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,864

Combined PnL-$8.67

FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih3 traders

Total Value$122.17

Total Shares211

Combined PnL+$13.57

FK Dynamo Kyiv — 50%FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on FK Dynamo Kyiv. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrFK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rihavg 56.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$81.89	50% 26427-26254 (52681)
└ FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih leg	FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rihavg 56.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$48.8
└ FK Dynamo Kyiv leg	FK Dynamo Kyivavg 48.6¢	$896.91	$766.21	-$130.7
SU suntoriCTR	FK Dynamo Kyivavg 47.3¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$8.23	44% 6439-8045 (14484)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	FK Dynamo Kyivavg 40.3¢	$776.02	$829.84	+$33.65	51% 17604-16613 (34217)
└ FK Dynamo Kyiv leg	FK Dynamo Kyivavg 40.3¢	$408.34	$420.51	+$0.26
└ FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih leg	FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rihavg 53.7¢	$375.94	$409.33	+$33.39
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rihavg 51.3¢	$52.32	$58.14	+$5.82	46% 9226-10934 (20160)
IW iWasEnough<$100	FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rihavg 51¢	$72.88	$43.36	+$6.19	53% 8070-7281 (15351)
FE ferdinand2<$100	FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rihavg 52.7¢	$19.11	$20.66	+$1.56	51% 991-958 (1949)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	FK Dynamo Kyivavg 47¢	$6.56	$6.56	-$0.49	50% 24998-24716 (49714)
HRTradingCTR<$100	FK Dynamo Kyivavg 44¢	$5.27	$5.41	+$0.05	53% 6368-5753 (12121)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

Invested

$2,132.54

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$81.89

Record

50%

26427-26254 (52681)

Both legs:

FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih$1,235.6256.3¢+$48.8

FK Dynamo Kyiv$896.9148.6¢-$130.7

suntoriCTR

FK Dynamo Kyiv

Invested

$1,383.73

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$8.23

Record

44%

6439-8045 (14484)

FlaznorpARB<$100

FK Dynamo Kyiv

Invested

$776.02

Value

$829.84

PnL

+$33.65

Record

51%

17604-16613 (34217)

Both legs:

FK Dynamo Kyiv$408.3440.3¢+$0.26

FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih$375.9453.7¢+$33.39

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

Invested

$52.32

Value

$58.14

PnL

+$5.82

Record

46%

9226-10934 (20160)

iWasEnough<$100

FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

Invested

$72.88

Value

$43.36

PnL

+$6.19

Record

53%

8070-7281 (15351)

ferdinand2<$100

FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

Invested

$19.11

Value

$20.66

PnL

+$1.56

Record

51%

991-958 (1949)

sentrioCTR<$100

FK Dynamo Kyiv

Invested

$6.56

Value

$6.56

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

24998-24716 (49714)

HRTradingCTR<$100

FK Dynamo Kyiv

Invested

$5.27

Value

$5.41

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

6368-5753 (12121)

Research grade

NeutralFK Dynamo Kyiv at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

FK Dynamo Kyiv

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on FK Dynamo Kyiv. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrFK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FK Dynamo Kyiv wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.