Will FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih win on 2026-11-02?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$1.9K
$24.62
86¢ → 89.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntori | Noavg 86¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$7.55 | 45% 12892-15654 (28546) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 13.2¢ | $264.69 | $269.87 | +$5.18 | 50% 26428-26255 (52683) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 86¢ | $201.3 | $208.32 | +$7.02 | 50% 34698-34163 (68861) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.1¢ | $48.3 | $64.77 | +$16.47 | 51% 17610-16613 (34223) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $61.02 | $47.93 | -$11.79 | 58% 43595-31708 (75303) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.1¢ | $8.22 | $9.22 | +$0.74 | 53% 6370-5754 (12124) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $8.03 | $7.48 | -$0.55 | 46% 9226-10935 (20161) |
Invested
$1,268.56
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$7.55
Record
45%
12892-15654 (28546)
Invested
$264.69
Value
$269.87
PnL
+$5.18
Record
50%
26428-26255 (52683)
Invested
$201.3
Value
$208.32
PnL
+$7.02
Record
50%
34698-34163 (68861)
Invested
$48.3
Value
$64.77
PnL
+$16.47
Record
51%
17610-16613 (34223)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$61.02
Value
$47.93
PnL
-$11.79
Record
58%
43595-31708 (75303)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.22
Value
$9.22
PnL
+$0.74
Record
53%
6370-5754 (12124)
Invested
$8.03
Value
$7.48
PnL
-$0.55
Record
46%
9226-10935 (20161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.