Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-11-02?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 35¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$168.43

Smart Money Entry

28.9¢ → 34.5¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,689

Combined PnL+$147.05

Yes1 trader

Total Value$239.35

Total Shares328

Combined PnL+$21.38

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotradecopyCTR	Noavg 28¢	$500	$607.14	+$62.5	49% 3953-4141 (8094)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 29.3¢	$404.33	$457.37	+$32.57	50% 26427-26254 (52681)
└ No leg	Noavg 29.3¢	$279.65	$258.1	+$50.15
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 71.9¢	$196.37	$199.27	-$17.58
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Noavg 28¢	$364.55	$442.66	+$71.61	51% 3961-3861 (7822)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 30.9¢	$258.22	$288.48	+$34.01	51% 17604-16613 (34217)
SU suntori	Yesavg 66.5¢	$217.97	$239.35	+$21.38	44% 6439-8045 (14484)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 29.8¢	$164.63	$149.25	-$15.38	46% 9226-10934 (20160)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 31.9¢	$66.51	$40.03	-$9.08	58% 43592-31705 (75297)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 28.2¢	$17.97	$21.68	+$3.39	50% 24998-24716 (49714)

NotradecopyCTR

Invested

$500

Value

$607.14

PnL

+$62.5

Record

49%

3953-4141 (8094)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$404.33

Value

$457.37

PnL

+$32.57

Record

50%

26427-26254 (52681)

Both legs:

No$279.6529.3¢+$50.15

Yes$196.3771.9¢-$17.58

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Invested

$364.55

Value

$442.66

PnL

+$71.61

Record

51%

3961-3861 (7822)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$258.22

Value

$288.48

PnL

+$34.01

Record

51%

17604-16613 (34217)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$217.97

Value

$239.35

PnL

+$21.38

Record

44%

6439-8045 (14484)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$164.63

Value

$149.25

PnL

-$15.38

Record

46%

9226-10934 (20160)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$66.51

Value

$40.03

PnL

-$9.08

Record

58%

43592-31705 (75297)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$17.97

Value

$21.68

PnL

+$3.39

Record

50%

24998-24716 (49714)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.