Will FK Kolos Kovalivka win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 56¢ · $820 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$820.36
$135.96
61.5¢ → 55.5¢
-10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL BlackMamba08 | Noavg 38.9¢ | $132.36 | $228.26 | +$55.02 | 49% 103-107 (210) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 84.7¢ | $267.51 | $211.53 | -$55.99 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $182.6 | $200 | +$2 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 83.1¢ | $166.29 | $134 | -$56 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16¢ | $32 | $66 | +$58 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $20.07 | $142.7 | +$122.63 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $23.58 | $37.87 | +$14.3 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
Invested
$132.36
Value
$228.26
PnL
+$55.02
Record
49%
103-107 (210)
Invested
$267.51
Value
$211.53
PnL
-$55.99
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$182.6
Value
$200
PnL
+$2
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.07
Value
$142.7
PnL
+$122.63
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$23.58
Value
$37.87
PnL
+$14.3
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.