Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FK Epitsentr Dunaivtsi vs. FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih: Both Teams to Score
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 32¢ · $146 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$146.04
-$1.27
Research grade
NeutralNo at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 58.7¢ | $82.41 | $83.08 | +$0.67 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58.7¢ | $51.29 | $60.3 | +$9.01 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42.3¢ | $31.12 | $22.78 | -$8.34 | |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.9¢ | $25.46 | $23.74 | -$1.73 | 50% 21534-21823 (43357) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $17.61 | $18.53 | +$0.93 | 49% 1821-1900 (3721) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $11.11 | $10.79 | -$0.24 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $9.68 | $9.22 | -$0.23 | 49% 14973-15876 (30849) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $0.69 | $0.68 | +$0 | 58% 47475-34259 (81734) |
Invested
$82.41
Value
$83.08
PnL
+$0.67
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Both legs:
Invested
$25.46
Value
$23.74
PnL
-$1.73
Record
50%
21534-21823 (43357)
Invested
$17.61
Value
$18.53
PnL
+$0.93
Record
49%
1821-1900 (3721)
Invested
$11.11
Value
$10.79
PnL
-$0.24
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
Invested
$9.68
Value
$9.22
PnL
-$0.23
Record
49%
14973-15876 (30849)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.69
Value
$0.68
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
47475-34259 (81734)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.