FK LNZ Cherkasy vs. FK Kharkiv: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 52¢ · $761 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$761.17
$56.54
66¢ → 51.5¢
-22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 66¢ | $382.09 | $298.14 | -$83.94 | 59% 52520-37212 (89732) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 34¢ | $155.38 | $215.16 | +$59.78 | 57% 60639-45678 (106317) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 33.6¢ | $111.92 | $161.39 | +$49.47 | 52% 47498-44700 (92198) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Overavg 10.7¢ | $11.55 | $52.38 | +$40.83 | 47% 116-132 (248) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $43.7 | $34.1 | -$9.6 | 50% 33004-33062 (66066) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$382.09
Value
$298.14
PnL
-$83.94
Record
59%
52520-37212 (89732)
Invested
$155.38
Value
$215.16
PnL
+$59.78
Record
57%
60639-45678 (106317)
Invested
$111.92
Value
$161.39
PnL
+$49.47
Record
52%
47498-44700 (92198)
Invested
$11.55
Value
$52.38
PnL
+$40.83
Record
47%
116-132 (248)
Invested
$43.7
Value
$34.1
PnL
-$9.6
Record
50%
33004-33062 (66066)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.