Will FK Kharkiv win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 68¢ · $591 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$591.33
$44.36
60.2¢ → 67.5¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 60¢ | $437.82 | $295.53 | +$32.76 | 58% 46645-33616 (80261) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 60¢ | $101.57 | $116.2 | +$14.63 | 50% 28404-28301 (56705) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 61¢ | $138.52 | $93.5 | +$9 | 51% 25682-24404 (50086) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $89.96 | $77.36 | -$12.6 | 54% 2568-2229 (4797) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $3.3 | $4.88 | +$1.58 | 55% 1358-1129 (2487) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $4.88 | $3.87 | -$1.01 | 49% 14681-15372 (30053) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$437.82
Value
$295.53
PnL
+$32.76
Record
58%
46645-33616 (80261)
Invested
$101.57
Value
$116.2
PnL
+$14.63
Record
50%
28404-28301 (56705)
Invested
$138.52
Value
$93.5
PnL
+$9
Record
51%
25682-24404 (50086)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$89.96
Value
$77.36
PnL
-$12.6
Record
54%
2568-2229 (4797)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$4.88
PnL
+$1.58
Record
55%
1358-1129 (2487)
Invested
$4.88
Value
$3.87
PnL
-$1.01
Record
49%
14681-15372 (30053)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.