Will FK LNZ Cherkasy vs. FK Kharkiv end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 75¢ · $502 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$502.31
$11.55
66.8¢ → 74.5¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 67¢ | $291.96 | $324.65 | +$32.68 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $140.44 | $105.01 | -$30.88 | 50% 21821-22062 (43883) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $31.83 | $36.48 | +$4.65 | 49% 15008-15929 (30937) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 67.7¢ | $17.13 | $17.72 | +$0.59 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $8.58 | $12.49 | +$3.91 | 49% 103-107 (210) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $5.37 | $5.96 | +$0.59 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
Invested
$291.96
Value
$324.65
PnL
+$32.68
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$140.44
Value
$105.01
PnL
-$30.88
Record
50%
21821-22062 (43883)
Invested
$31.83
Value
$36.48
PnL
+$4.65
Record
49%
15008-15929 (30937)
Invested
$17.13
Value
$17.72
PnL
+$0.59
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$8.58
Value
$12.49
PnL
+$3.91
Record
49%
103-107 (210)
Invested
$5.37
Value
$5.96
PnL
+$0.59
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.