UFC 334: Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke (Welterweight, Prelims)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Stephen Thompson (43%) · Stephen Thompson at 57¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Stephen Thompson57¢Charles Radtke43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Stephen Thompson

Consensus Traders

Stephen Thompson 43%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$103.42

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 57.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralStephen Thompson at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Stephen Thompson

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Stephen Thompson57%

Charles Radtke43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Stephen Thompson3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,219

Combined PnL-$352

Charles Radtke4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,689

Combined PnL+$248.58

Stephen Thompson — 43%Charles Radtke — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Stephen Thompsonavg 59¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$408	1% 5-496 (501)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Charles Radtkeavg 41.9¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$174.39	48% 536-588 (1124)
DC 0xdc41...dd7eCTR	Charles Radtkeavg 41¢	$265.27	$317.03	+$51.76	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Charles Radtkeavg 44¢	$202.39	$225.39	+$23	41% 263-382 (645)
VeryLucky888	Stephen Thompsonavg 57¢	$1.6K	$58.14	+$56.25	52% 497-453 (950)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Charles Radtkeavg 43¢	$49.02	$48.45	-$0.57	23% 36-121 (157)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Stephen Thompsonavg 56¢	$2.79	$2.54	-$0.25	34% 328-634 (962)

JAMJAMJAM4

Stephen Thompson

Invested

$3,008.97

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$408

Record

5-496 (501)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Charles Radtke

Invested

$1,035.07

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$174.39

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

0xdc41...dd7eCTR

Charles Radtke

Invested

$265.27

Value

$317.03

PnL

+$51.76

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR

Charles Radtke

Invested

$202.39

Value

$225.39

PnL

+$23

Record

41%

263-382 (645)

VeryLucky888

Stephen Thompson

Invested

$1,606.15

Value

$58.14

PnL

+$56.25

Record

52%

497-453 (950)

OddstormCTR<$100

Charles Radtke

Invested

$49.02

Value

$48.45

PnL

-$0.57

Record

23%

36-121 (157)

ameisgoat11<$100

Stephen Thompson

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.54

PnL

-$0.25

Record

34%

328-634 (962)

Research grade

NeutralStephen Thompson at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Stephen Thompson

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Stephen Thompson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.