O/U 2.5 Rounds

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 60¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 15

Over40¢Under60¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

$42.53

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 60¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares14,488

Combined PnL-$253.63

Over5 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares16,018

Combined PnL+$296.16

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 61.8¢	$7.6K	$7.4K	-$224.03	46% 516-615 (1131)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Overavg 38¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$200	10% 25-220 (245)
SI SineNooneEICTR	Overavg 39¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$36.44	55% 637-531 (1168)
Painfulvoid	Underavg 61¢	$823.5	$810	-$13.5	0% 1-254 (255)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 37¢	$477.71	$516.45	+$38.73	49% 640-677 (1317)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 62¢	$496	$480	-$16	26% 362-1040 (1402)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Overavg 38¢	$305.9	$322	+$16.1	33% 69-139 (208)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 38.3¢	$121.08	$125.98	+$4.89	47% 319-356 (675)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 61¢	$6.1	$6	-$0.1	41% 706-1015 (1721)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$7,620.95

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$224.03

Record

46%

516-615 (1131)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Over

Invested

$3,800

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$200

Record

10%

25-220 (245)

SineNooneEICTR

Over

Invested

$1,421.12

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$36.44

Record

55%

637-531 (1168)

Painfulvoid

Under

Invested

$823.5

Value

$810

PnL

-$13.5

Record

1-254 (255)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$477.71

Value

$516.45

PnL

+$38.73

Record

49%

640-677 (1317)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$496

Value

$480

PnL

-$16

Record

26%

362-1040 (1402)

Bagwell306CTR

Over

Invested

$305.9

Value

$322

PnL

+$16.1

Record

33%

69-139 (208)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$121.08

Value

$125.98

PnL

+$4.89

Record

47%

319-356 (675)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$6.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

706-1015 (1721)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.