UFC 334: Macy Chiasson vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Early Prelims)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bia Mesquita (44%) · Bia Mesquita at 71¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Macy Chiasson30¢Bia Mesquita70¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bia Mesquita

Consensus Traders

Bia Mesquita 44%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$63.53

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 70.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBia Mesquita at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bia Mesquita

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Macy Chiasson30%

Bia Mesquita71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bia Mesquita4 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,045

Combined PnL+$30.3

Macy Chiasson5 traders

Total Value$380.86

Total Shares1,289

Combined PnL+$33.23

Bia Mesquita — 44%Macy Chiasson — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bia Mesquita. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Macy Chiasson) and the top 1000 (7 on Bia Mesquita) disagree here.

ctrMacy Chiasson 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMacy Chiasson 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bia Mesquita 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Bia Mesquitaavg 70¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$26.44	46% 496-589 (1085)
VeryLucky888CTR	Macy Chiassonavg 29¢	$1.1K	$191.9	+$35.17	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
DA darkumbreon88	Bia Mesquitaavg 69¢	$169.51	$173.2	+$3.69	61% 1041-659 (1700)
VE VenusianCTR	Macy Chiassonavg 30¢	$161.79	$159.09	-$2.7	36% 953-1669 (2622)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Macy Chiassonavg 29¢	$23.26	$24.07	+$0.8	49% 635-674 (1309)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Bia Mesquitaavg 71¢	$11.09	$11.01	-$0.08	62% 213-128 (341)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bia Mesquitaavg 68¢	$6.98	$7.23	+$0.25	41% 698-1011 (1709)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Macy Chiassonavg 30¢	$3.06	$3.01	-$0.05	32% 99-208 (307)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Macy Chiassonavg 30¢	$2.79	$2.79	-$0	37% 972-1637 (2609)

omnibus-076daa

Bia Mesquita

Invested

$4,188.71

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$26.44

Record

46%

496-589 (1085)

VeryLucky888CTR

Macy Chiasson

Invested

$1,131.45

Value

$191.9

PnL

+$35.17

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

darkumbreon88

Bia Mesquita

Invested

$169.51

Value

$173.2

PnL

+$3.69

Record

61%

1041-659 (1700)

VenusianCTR

Macy Chiasson

Invested

$161.79

Value

$159.09

PnL

-$2.7

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Macy Chiasson

Invested

$23.26

Value

$24.07

PnL

+$0.8

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

thatsabing0<$100

Bia Mesquita

Invested

$11.09

Value

$11.01

PnL

-$0.08

Record

62%

213-128 (341)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bia Mesquita

Invested

$6.98

Value

$7.23

PnL

+$0.25

Record

41%

698-1011 (1709)

OddstormCTR<$100

Macy Chiasson

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$0.05

Record

32%

99-208 (307)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Macy Chiasson

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.79

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

Research grade

NeutralBia Mesquita at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bia Mesquita

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bia Mesquita. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Macy Chiasson) and the top 1000 (7 on Bia Mesquita) disagree here.

ctrMacy Chiasson 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMacy Chiasson 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bia Mesquita 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bia Mesquita wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.