Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

O/U 1.5 Rounds

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $66K held · ends Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.9K

Combined PnL

$-6.5K

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$39.3K

Total Shares72,603

Combined PnL$-4.0K

Over6 traders

Total Value$26.3K

Total Shares71,248

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PainfulvoidCTR	Underavg 59¢	$35.4K	$37.8K	+$2.4K	1% 2-255 (257)
SI SineNooneEI	Overavg 41¢	$20.5K	$18.5K	$-2.0K	54% 638-534 (1172)
0X 0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003	Overavg 39¢	$7.8K	$7.3K	-$500.23	— 1-3 (4)
DR dribblingbanana69CTR	Underavg 62¢	$800.63	$845.59	+$44.96	— 5-5 (10)
CO CornerGamingCTR	Underavg 63¢	$629.99	$519.99	-$110	16% 4-21 (25)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 41¢	$328	$296	-$32	28% 408-1071 (1479)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Overavg 37.4¢	$287.03	$291.65	+$4.61	49% 389-413 (802)
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.4¢	$208.3	$208.88	+$0.57
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.4¢	$78.73	$82.77	+$4.04
RO roscoff	Overavg 33¢	$134.05	$142.18	+$8.12	48% 41-45 (86)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$88.03	$95.61	+$7.59	48% 670-715 (1385)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$31.5	$31.5	+$0	51% 970-935 (1905)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 58.3¢	$18.03	$14.21	+$1.15	42% 740-1034 (1774)
BA Bagwell306<$100	Overavg 34¢	$8.23	$8.6	+$0.36	35% 77-144 (221)
BR brokemaxdegenCTR	Underavg 63¢	$6.3K	$5.02	$-6.3K	— 2-1 (3)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 36¢	$4.57	$4.63	+$0.06	54% 1641-1409 (3050)

PainfulvoidCTR

Under

Invested

$35,429.5

Value

$37.8K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

2-255 (257)

SineNooneEI

Over

Invested

$20,500

Value

$18.5K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

54%

638-534 (1172)

0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003

Over

Invested

$7,802.05

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$500.23

Record

—

1-3 (4)

dribblingbanana69CTR

Under

Invested

$800.63

Value

$845.59

PnL

+$44.96

Record

—

5-5 (10)

CornerGamingCTR

Under

Invested

$629.99

Value

$519.99

PnL

-$110

Record

16%

4-21 (25)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$328

Value

$296

PnL

-$32

Record

28%

408-1071 (1479)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$287.03

Value

$291.65

PnL

+$4.61

Record

49%

389-413 (802)

Both legs:

Over$208.337.4¢+$0.57

Under$78.7359.4¢+$4.04

roscoff

Over

Invested

$134.05

Value

$142.18

PnL

+$8.12

Record

48%

41-45 (86)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88.03

Value

$95.61

PnL

+$7.59

Record

48%

670-715 (1385)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.5

Value

$31.5

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.03

Value

$14.21

PnL

+$1.15

Record

42%

740-1034 (1774)

Bagwell306<$100

Over

Invested

$8.23

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0.36

Record

35%

77-144 (221)

brokemaxdegenCTR

Under

Invested

$6,323.67

Value

$5.02

PnL

$-6.3K

Record

—

2-1 (3)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$4.57

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.