UFC 334: Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan (Flyweight, Main Card)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bilal Hasan (50%) · Bilal Hasan at 89¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15

Luis Gurule11¢Bilal Hasan89¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bilal Hasan

Consensus Traders

Bilal Hasan 50%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$35.28

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 89¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBilal Hasan at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilal Hasan

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Luis Gurule11%

Bilal Hasan89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilal Hasan3 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares8,399

Combined PnL+$33.38

Luis Gurule3 traders

Total Value$52.72

Total Shares462

Combined PnL+$1.89

Bilal Hasan — 50%Luis Gurule — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Bilal Hasanavg 88.6¢	$7.5K	$7.3K	+$33.28	52% 497-453 (950)
DA darkumbreon88	Bilal Hasanavg 89¢	$119.46	$119.46	-$0	61% 930-595 (1525)
7E 0x7e59...7b8bCTR<$100	Luis Guruleavg 11¢	$46.74	$46.74	+$0	—
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bilal Hasanavg 88.3¢	$13.25	$13.35	+$0.1	34% 328-634 (962)
6B 0x6b25...7a69CTR<$100	Luis Guruleavg 11¢	$3.19	$4.64	+$1.45	—
9F 0x9f41...8f27CTR<$100	Luis Guruleavg 10.9¢	$2.22	$1.35	+$0.44	—

VeryLucky888

Bilal Hasan

Invested

$7,495.21

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$33.28

Record

52%

497-453 (950)

darkumbreon88

Bilal Hasan

Invested

$119.46

Value

$119.46

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

930-595 (1525)

0x7e59...7b8bCTR<$100

Luis Gurule

Invested

$46.74

Value

$46.74

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ameisgoat11<$100

Bilal Hasan

Invested

$13.25

Value

$13.35

PnL

+$0.1

Record

34%

328-634 (962)

0x6b25...7a69CTR<$100

Luis Gurule

Invested

$3.19

Value

$4.64

PnL

+$1.45

Record

—

0x9f41...8f27CTR<$100

Luis Gurule

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.44

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralBilal Hasan at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bilal Hasan

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilal Hasan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.