Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

O/U 1.5 Rounds

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$485.89

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares7,445

Combined PnL-$778.85

Over4 traders

Total Value$803.85

Total Shares1,138

Combined PnL+$292.96

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Underavg 52.6¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$77.76	33% 14-29 (43)
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Overavg 41.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$90.99	49% 676-717 (1393)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.7¢	$804.24	$887.62	+$83.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$402.83	$410.43	+$7.6
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Overavg 47¢	$240	$510.77	+$270.77	40% 652-976 (1628)
TO tomb2456	Overavg 43¢	$262.3	$280.6	+$18.3	56% 42-33 (75)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 55.4¢	$239.47	$233.54	-$5.92	48% 402-433 (835)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Overavg 43¢	$102.23	$63.87	+$5.13	51% 994-962 (1956)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$35.03	$37.48	+$4.51
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$26.39	$26.39	+$0.62
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 46¢	$3.06	$6.62	+$3.56	75% 207-68 (275)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 41.5¢	$5.53	$5.86	+$0.33	42% 763-1062 (1825)
CO CornerGamingCTR	Underavg 56.8¢	$851.43	$0.75	-$850.68	21% 6-22 (28)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Under

Invested

$2,898.78

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$77.76

Record

33%

14-29 (43)

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,207.07

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$90.99

Record

49%

676-717 (1393)

Both legs:

Over$804.2441.7¢+$83.38

Under$402.8353¢+$7.6

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Over

Invested

$240

Value

$510.77

PnL

+$270.77

Record

40%

652-976 (1628)

tomb2456

Over

Invested

$262.3

Value

$280.6

PnL

+$18.3

Record

56%

42-33 (75)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$239.47

Value

$233.54

PnL

-$5.92

Record

48%

402-433 (835)

NotJumpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$102.23

Value

$63.87

PnL

+$5.13

Record

51%

994-962 (1956)

Both legs:

Invested

$3.06

Value

$6.62

PnL

+$3.56

Record

75%

207-68 (275)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$5.53

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$0.33

Record

42%

763-1062 (1825)

CornerGamingCTR

Under

Invested

$851.43

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$850.68

Record

21%

6-22 (28)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.