Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

O/U 3.5 Rounds

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (31%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $62K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 31%

Total Value

$62.3K

Combined PnL

$10.5K

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$49.6K

Total Shares54,355

Combined PnL+$29.5K

Under4 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares50,339

Combined PnL$-19.0K

Over — 69%Under — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 37¢	$17.4K	$47.0K	+$29.6K	50% 2776-2756 (5532)
CA cavvvyCTR	Underavg 63¢	$31.5K	$12.5K	$-19.0K	— 3-16 (19)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 37.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14.25	48% 699-746 (1445)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Overavg 37.4¢	$964.78	$945.78	-$19	48% 435-473 (908)
RO roscoff	Overavg 35¢	$144.07	$158.48	+$14.41	48% 43-47 (90)
JE Jest55CTR	Underavg 59¢	$118	$120	+$2	10% 2-19 (21)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Overavg 39¢	$203.85	$101.92	-$101.92	40% 678-998 (1676)
TO tomb2456<$100	Overavg 37¢	$74	$75	+$1	55% 44-36 (80)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$65.25	$65.88	+$0.63	51% 1040-1018 (2058)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 40.2¢	$10.72	$10.67	-$0.05	42% 810-1105 (1915)
wesolyjasiu<$100	Overavg 99¢	$4.85	$4.88	+$0.02	100% 48-0 (48)
HY hydra1248CTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$3.8	$4.02	+$0.22	75% 217-73 (290)
HI hi774c<$100	Overavg 39¢	$2.51	$2.57	+$0.06	25% 227-676 (903)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$17,391.3

Value

$47.0K

PnL

+$29.6K

Record

50%

2776-2756 (5532)

cavvvyCTR

Under

Invested

$31,536.46

Value

$12.5K

PnL

$-19.0K

Record

—

3-16 (19)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$1,369.93

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14.25

Record

48%

699-746 (1445)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Over

Invested

$964.78

Value

$945.78

PnL

-$19

Record

48%

435-473 (908)

roscoff

Over

Invested

$144.07

Value

$158.48

PnL

+$14.41

Record

48%

43-47 (90)

Jest55CTR

Under

Invested

$118

Value

$120

PnL

+$2

Record

10%

2-19 (21)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Over

Invested

$203.85

Value

$101.92

PnL

-$101.92

Record

40%

678-998 (1676)

tomb2456<$100

Over

Invested

$74

Value

$75

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

44-36 (80)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65.25

Value

$65.88

PnL

+$0.63

Record

51%

1040-1018 (2058)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$10.72

Value

$10.67

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

810-1105 (1915)

wesolyjasiu<$100

Over

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.02

Record

100%

48-0 (48)

hydra1248CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.02

PnL

+$0.22

Record

75%

217-73 (290)

hi774c<$100

Over

Invested

$2.51

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.06

Record

25%

227-676 (903)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.