Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

O/U 2.5 Rounds

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $102K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$101.8K

Combined PnL

$34.2K

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$52.0K

Total Shares85,155

Combined PnL+$9.6K

Over4 traders

Total Value$49.9K

Total Shares50,141

Combined PnL+$24.6K

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DonaldinhoTrumpitoCTR	Underavg 49¢	$19.6K	$29.2K	+$9.6K	64% 304-173 (477)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 49¢	$14.2K	$29.0K	+$14.8K	51% 3910-3706 (7616)
CUTJALENHURTS	Overavg 51¢	$10.3K	$20.1K	+$9.9K	52% 2680-2503 (5183)
CA cavvvyCTR	Underavg 51¢	$15.3K	$15.3K	-$0	— 3-16 (19)
DR dribblingbanana69CTR	Underavg 49¢	$7.3K	$7.4K	+$0	— 6-10 (16)
wesolyjasiu	Overavg 99.4¢	$425.4	$427.67	+$2.26	100% 48-0 (48)
RO roscoff	Overavg 48.8¢	$346.14	$355.66	+$9.51	48% 43-47 (90)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$96.19	$90.12	+$12.63	51% 1040-1018 (2058)
siickCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$16.36	$17.82	+$1.45	1% 1-145 (146)

DonaldinhoTrumpitoCTR

Under

Invested

$19,600

Value

$29.2K

PnL

+$9.6K

Record

64%

304-173 (477)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$14,196.72

Value

$29.0K

PnL

+$14.8K

Record

51%

3910-3706 (7616)

CUTJALENHURTS

Over

Invested

$10,259.45

Value

$20.1K

PnL

+$9.9K

Record

52%

2680-2503 (5183)

cavvvyCTR

Under

Invested

$15,307.68

Value

$15.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

—

3-16 (19)

dribblingbanana69CTR

Under

Invested

$7,350

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

6-10 (16)

wesolyjasiu

Over

Invested

$425.4

Value

$427.67

PnL

+$2.26

Record

100%

48-0 (48)

roscoff

Over

Invested

$346.14

Value

$355.66

PnL

+$9.51

Record

48%

43-47 (90)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$96.19

Value

$90.12

PnL

+$12.63

Record

51%

1040-1018 (2058)

siickCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.36

Value

$17.82

PnL

+$1.45

Record

1-145 (146)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.