Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $39K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.0K

Combined PnL

-$945.7

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 99.5¢

+81% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$28.1K

Total Shares52,302

Combined PnL-$741.44

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares24,604

Combined PnL-$204.26

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Noavg 55.5¢	$21.1K	$21.1K	-$10.26	52% 2680-2503 (5183)
billy578CTR	Yesavg 45¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$105.59	— 4-0 (4)
futureperfectCTR	Yesavg 44¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$98.67	— 3-1 (4)
DavidShekel	Noavg 55.1¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$37.07	0% 0-94 (94)
RO roscoff	Noavg 55.3¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$27.07	48% 43-47 (90)
DR dribblingbanana69CTR	Yesavg 43¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0	— 6-10 (16)
JE Jest55	Noavg 51.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$9.76	10% 2-19 (21)
norrisfan	Noavg 51.4¢	$1.6K	$846.49	-$796.8	— 3-4 (7)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 57¢	$472	$463.72	-$8.28	29% 463-1109 (1572)
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$616.7	$299.26	+$61.07	49% 359-370 (729)
└ No leg	Noavg 82.4¢	$214.59	$209.68	-$35.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.4¢	$20.17	$89.58	+$96.79

CUTJALENHURTS

Invested

$21,071.44

Value

$21.1K

PnL

-$10.26

Record

52%

2680-2503 (5183)

billy578CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,900

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$105.59

Record

—

4-0 (4)

futureperfectCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,341.65

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$98.67

Record

—

3-1 (4)

DavidShekel

Invested

$2,248.43

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$37.07

Record

0-94 (94)

roscoff

Invested

$2,212.89

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$27.07

Record

48%

43-47 (90)

dribblingbanana69CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,651.39

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

—

6-10 (16)

Jest55

Invested

$1,149.44

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$9.76

Record

10%

2-19 (21)

norrisfan

Invested

$1,643.29

Value

$846.49

PnL

-$796.8

Record

—

3-4 (7)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$472

Value

$463.72

PnL

-$8.28

Record

29%

463-1109 (1572)

GaditimaARB<$100

Invested

$616.7

Value

$299.26

PnL

+$61.07

Record

49%

359-370 (729)

Both legs:

No$214.5982.4¢-$35.73

Yes$20.174.4¢+$96.79

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.