Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jim Miller, while the market favors Terrance McKinney (65%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
UFC 334: Jim Miller vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Prelims)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Jim Miller (100%) · Jim Miller at 35¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Jim Miller
4
Jim Miller 100%
$120.2
$0.35
34.6¢ → 34.7¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJim Miller at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Terrance McKinney 65%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Jim Milleravg 34.8¢ | $82.2 | $81.85 | -$0.35 | 34% 162-314 (476) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Jim Milleravg 34¢ | $32.48 | $33.13 | +$0.65 | 52% 5301-4808 (10109) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Jim Milleravg 34.5¢ | $3.45 | $3.47 | +$0.02 | 22% 134-483 (617) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Jim Milleravg 34¢ | $1.71 | $1.74 | +$0.03 | 50% 1378-1396 (2774) |
Invested
$82.2
Value
$81.85
PnL
-$0.35
Record
34%
162-314 (476)
Invested
$32.48
Value
$33.13
PnL
+$0.65
Record
52%
5301-4808 (10109)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.47
PnL
+$0.02
Record
22%
134-483 (617)
Invested
$1.71
Value
$1.74
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
1378-1396 (2774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.