UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith (Bantamweight, Main Card)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Elijah Smith (71%) · Elijah Smith at 74¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 8
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Neutral
Elijah Smith
7
Elijah Smith 71%
$11.0K
-$116.51
74.5¢ → 73.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralElijah Smith at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Elijah Smith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI SineNooneEI | Elijah Smithavg 75¢ | $6.8K | $6.6K | -$136.46 | 53% 947-832 (1779) |
JO JohnnyWinsCTR | Davey Grantavg 27.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$5.37 | 43% 125-168 (293) |
 VeryLucky888 | Elijah Smithavg 72.8¢ | $2.4K | $1.9K | +$27.09 | 58% 47054-33937 (80991) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Elijah Smithavg 73.2¢ | $181.74 | $180.07 | -$1.67 | 50% 21358-21635 (42993) |
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100 | Elijah Smithavg 71¢ | $14.66 | $14.97 | +$0.31 | 47% 364-413 (777) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Elijah Smithavg 72.7¢ | $12.23 | $12.16 | -$0 | 52% 8844-8038 (16882) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Davey Grantavg 28.7¢ | $9.97 | $9.05 | -$0.4 | 53% 2617-2311 (4928) |
Invested
$6,820.19
Value
$6.6K
PnL
-$136.46
Record
53%
947-832 (1779)
Invested
$2,291.57
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$5.37
Record
43%
125-168 (293)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,389.64
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$27.09
Record
58%
47054-33937 (80991)
Invested
$181.74
Value
$180.07
PnL
-$1.67
Record
50%
21358-21635 (42993)
Invested
$14.66
Value
$14.97
PnL
+$0.31
Record
47%
364-413 (777)
Invested
$12.23
Value
$12.16
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
8844-8038 (16882)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.05
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
2617-2311 (4928)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.