UFC 334: Cesar Almeida vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Prelims)
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Donte Johnson (14%) · Donte Johnson at 62¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 15
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Neutral
Donte Johnson
7
Donte Johnson 14%
$25.5K
$1.2K
Research grade
NeutralDonte Johnson at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI SineNooneEI | Donte Johnsonavg 61.3¢ | $18.0K | $18.2K | +$211.03 | 55% 629-522 (1151) |
 8DDDCTR | Cesar Almeidaavg 39.2¢ | $4.0K | $4.9K | +$941.7 | 6% 2-30 (32) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Cesar Almeidaavg 38.4¢ | $4.7K | $2.1K | +$0.11 | 52% 497-453 (950) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Cesar Almeidaavg 39¢ | $85.8 | $106.7 | +$20.9 | 61% 930-595 (1525) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Cesar Almeidaavg 38¢ | $82.84 | $105.73 | +$22.89 | 58% 3212-2312 (5524) |
7E 0x7e59...7b8bCTR<$100 | Cesar Almeidaavg 39.1¢ | $39.06 | $48.5 | +$9.44 | — |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Cesar Almeidaavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $2.43 | +$0.47 | 34% 328-634 (962) |
Invested
$17,976.57
Value
$18.2K
PnL
+$211.03
Record
55%
629-522 (1151)
8DDDCTRInvested
$3,975.04
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$941.7
Record
6%
2-30 (32)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$4,693.14
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$0.11
Record
52%
497-453 (950)
Invested
$85.8
Value
$106.7
PnL
+$20.9
Record
61%
930-595 (1525)
Invested
$82.84
Value
$105.73
PnL
+$22.89
Record
58%
3212-2312 (5524)
Invested
$39.06
Value
$48.5
PnL
+$9.44
Record
—
Invested
$1.95
Value
$2.43
PnL
+$0.47
Record
34%
328-634 (962)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.