UFC Fight Night: Andre Petroski vs. Mantas Kondratavicius (Middleweight, Main Card)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Mantas Kondratavicius (57%) · Mantas Kondratavicius at 73¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8

Andre Petroski28¢Mantas Kondratavicius72¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mantas Kondratavicius

Consensus Traders

Mantas Kondratavicius 57%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$72.89

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 72.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMantas Kondratavicius at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mantas Kondratavicius

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Andre Petroski28%

Mantas Kondratavicius73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mantas Kondratavicius4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,097

Combined PnL-$32

Andre Petroski3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,333

Combined PnL-$40.89

Mantas Kondratavicius — 57%Andre Petroski — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Mantas Kondratavicius. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMantas Kondratavicius 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMantas Kondratavicius 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMantas Kondratavicius 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mantas Kondratavicius 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Mantas Kondrataviciusavg 72.1¢	$3.5K	$2.0K	+$13.43	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
OM omnibus-076daa	Mantas Kondrataviciusavg 73.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$45.37	50% 21502-21770 (43272)
JO JohnnyWinsCTR	Andre Petroskiavg 27.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$37.77	43% 125-168 (293)
RL RLWG<$100	Mantas Kondrataviciusavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.6	-$0	50% 8396-8445 (16841)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Mantas Kondrataviciusavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.6	-$0.05	52% 8906-8084 (16990)
AN anon122CTR<$100	Andre Petroskiavg 90¢	$4.5	$1.35	-$3.13	44% 37-47 (84)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Andre Petroskiavg 26¢	$0.35	$0.36	+$0.01	47% 380-429 (809)

VeryLucky888

Mantas Kondratavicius

Invested

$3,468.39

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$13.43

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

omnibus-076daa

Mantas Kondratavicius

Invested

$1,722.73

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$45.37

Record

50%

21502-21770 (43272)

JohnnyWinsCTR

Andre Petroski

Invested

$1,205.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$37.77

Record

43%

125-168 (293)

RLWG<$100

Mantas Kondratavicius

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

8396-8445 (16841)

ameisgoat11<$100

Mantas Kondratavicius

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

8906-8084 (16990)

anon122CTR<$100

Andre Petroski

Invested

$4.5

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$3.13

Record

44%

37-47 (84)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Andre Petroski

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

380-429 (809)

Research grade

NeutralMantas Kondratavicius at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mantas Kondratavicius

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Mantas Kondratavicius. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMantas Kondratavicius 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMantas Kondratavicius 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMantas Kondratavicius 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mantas Kondratavicius 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mantas Kondratavicius wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.