UFC Fight Night: Andre Petroski vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Azamat Bekoev (75%) · Azamat Bekoev at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
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Neutral
Azamat Bekoev
4
Azamat Bekoev 75%
$4.1K
-$360.77
55¢ → 50.5¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAzamat Bekoev at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxd | Azamat Bekoevavg 54.2¢ | $3.1K | $2.8K | -$210.54 | 68% 290-137 (427) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Azamat Bekoevavg 57¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$151.16 | 53% 299-268 (567) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Azamat Bekoevavg 51¢ | $48.66 | $48.18 | -$0.48 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Andre Petroskiavg 28¢ | $1.85 | $3.26 | +$1.42 | 36% 14598-26253 (40851) |
0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdInvested
$3,051.82
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$210.54
Record
68%
290-137 (427)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$1,325.58
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$151.16
Record
53%
299-268 (567)
Invested
$48.66
Value
$48.18
PnL
-$0.48
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$3.26
PnL
+$1.42
Record
36%
14598-26253 (40851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.