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NoYes
dips.CTRNoNoYesNoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will the fight be won by submission?
Resolved Yes. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
No 57%
Total Value
$11.0K
Combined PnL
-$312.48
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares11,469
Combined PnL$-7.1K
Yes3 traders
Total Value$11.0K
Total Shares10,983
Combined PnL+$6.8K
No — 57%Yes — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Noavg 62.8¢ | $4.6K | — | $-4.6K | 58% 3865-2801 (6666) |
CA cavvvy | Yesavg 37¢ | $4.0K | $10.8K | +$6.8K | — 3-16 (19) |
dips.CTR | Noavg 62¢ | $2.2K | — | $-2.2K | 48% 1236-1313 (2549) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Noavg 63.2¢ | $294.23 | — | -$294.23 | 49% 359-370 (729) |
AV aviato | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $141.34 | $141.48 | +$0.14 | — 11-0 (11) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $10.34 | — | -$10.34 | 28% 90-227 (317) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Yesavg 96¢ | $10 | $10.42 | +$0.42 | 42% 539-744 (1283) |
0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTRInvested
$4,582.64
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
58%
3865-2801 (6666)
CA
cavvvyInvested
$4,007.65
Value
$10.8K
PnL
+$6.8K
Record
—
3-16 (19)
dips.CTRInvested
$2,249.67
Value
—
PnL
$-2.2K
Record
48%
1236-1313 (2549)
GA
GaditimaCTRInvested
$294.23
Value
—
PnL
-$294.23
Record
49%
359-370 (729)
AV
aviatoInvested
$141.34
Value
$141.48
PnL
+$0.14
Record
—
11-0 (11)
0X
0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100Invested
$10.34
Value
—
PnL
-$10.34
Record
28%
90-227 (317)
PA
pauleta23<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.42
PnL
+$0.42
Record
42%
539-744 (1283)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xe42d7472...0a9fc9
Slug
ufc-ama1-kay4-2026-11-14-win-by-submission