Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)
6 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold AC Sparta Praha (29%) · AC Sparta Praha at 66¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
AC Sparta Praha
21
AC Sparta Praha 29%
5 arb excluded
$42.1K
$891.94
57.9¢ → 65.5¢
+13% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralAC Sparta Praha at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 21 top traders (29%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-15 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
45% of non-arb traders are on AC Sparta Praha. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | AC Sparta Prahaavg 60.7¢ | $11.7K | $11.7K | -$36.64 | 49% 197-201 (398) |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | AC Sparta Prahaavg 56.1¢ | $7.5K | $8.8K | +$1.3K | 42% 7992-11181 (19173) |
OM omnibus-076daa | AC Sparta Prahaavg 55.3¢ | $4.1K | $4.0K | -$57.33 | 50% 21156-21414 (42570) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 40¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$132.17 | 49% 14704-15378 (30082) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | AC Sparta Prahaavg 55¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$23.29 | 50% 28410-28315 (56725) |
| └ AC Sparta Praha leg | AC Sparta Prahaavg 55¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$34.23 | |
| └ AFC Bournemouth leg | AFC Bournemouthavg 46¢ | $979.9 | $990.84 | +$10.94 | |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | AFC Bournemouthavg 43.4¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$172.25 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
| └ AFC Bournemouth leg | AFC Bournemouthavg 43.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$243.88 | |
| └ AC Sparta Praha leg | AC Sparta Prahaavg 58.3¢ | $799.76 | $871.4 | +$71.63 | |
VE VenusianCTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 41.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$59.99 | 51% 1371-1334 (2705) |
 yabanciCTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 46¢ | $2.0K | $1.7K | -$282.75 | 50% 88-88 (176) |
IA ianf2026CTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 43¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$19.45 | 49% 104-109 (213) |
 Reformedx | AC Sparta Prahaavg 53¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$304.04 | 51% 870-839 (1709) |
HI hi774cCTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 40¢ | $928.2 | $799.65 | -$128.55 | 46% 5200-6047 (11247) |
 nigiri99ARB<$100 | AC Sparta Prahaavg 55.2¢ | $568.02 | $587.05 | +$19.03 | 46% 8591-10242 (18833) |
| └ AC Sparta Praha leg | AC Sparta Prahaavg 55.2¢ | $290.02 | $333.38 | +$43.35 | |
| └ AFC Bournemouth leg | AFC Bournemouthavg 40¢ | $278 | $253.67 | -$24.33 | |
PU purplegattoCTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 46.5¢ | $581.36 | $430.9 | -$150.46 | 49% 6287-6447 (12734) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | AC Sparta Prahaavg 53.8¢ | $1.1K | $270.83 | -$16.12 | 58% 46667-33629 (80296) |
| └ AC Sparta Praha leg | AC Sparta Prahaavg 53.8¢ | $144.87 | $176.54 | +$32.26 | |
| └ AFC Bournemouth leg | AFC Bournemouthavg 42.6¢ | $116.32 | $94.29 | -$48.38 | |
38 38791873984189CTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 42.3¢ | $394.14 | $235.16 | -$68.48 | 48% 61036-65868 (126904) |
 poshposhCTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 40¢ | $220.49 | $234.27 | +$13.78 | 57% 12692-9758 (22450) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 47¢ | $234.02 | $231.34 | -$2.69 | 50% 1313-1295 (2608) |
FO forecastication4CTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 41¢ | $273.47 | $230.11 | -$43.36 | 50% 1380-1390 (2770) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | AFC Bournemouthavg 44.3¢ | $242.97 | $213.24 | -$29.73 | 50% 25811-25501 (51312) |
| └ AFC Bournemouth leg | AFC Bournemouthavg 44.3¢ | $191.79 | $158 | -$33.79 | |
| └ AC Sparta Praha leg | AC Sparta Prahaavg 58.8¢ | $51.19 | $55.24 | +$4.05 | |
LI LimousinCTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 48.1¢ | $281.37 | $201.65 | -$79.71 | 53% 1413-1258 (2671) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 48.2¢ | $208.67 | $162.19 | -$46.48 | 52% 1365-1285 (2650) |
CA CannaeCTR | AFC Bournemouthavg 40¢ | $142.28 | $150.48 | +$8.2 | 53% 16798-14919 (31717) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | AFC Bournemouthavg 41¢ | $82 | $73 | -$9 | 47% 11685-13388 (25073) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | AC Sparta Prahaavg 59¢ | $26.55 | $24.3 | -$0.23 | 51% 37659-36887 (74546) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | AFC Bournemouthavg 46¢ | $14.26 | $11.63 | -$2.64 | 55% 9735-8124 (17859) |
Invested
$11,709.19
Value
$11.7K
PnL
-$36.64
Record
49%
197-201 (398)
Invested
$7,524.71
Value
$8.8K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
42%
7992-11181 (19173)
Invested
$4,101.57
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$57.33
Record
50%
21156-21414 (42570)
Invested
$2,114.76
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$132.17
Record
49%
14704-15378 (30082)
Invested
$2,235.28
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$23.29
Record
50%
28410-28315 (56725)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,337.2
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$172.25
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,038.87
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$59.99
Record
51%
1371-1334 (2705)
yabanciCTRInvested
$2,000.99
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$282.75
Record
50%
88-88 (176)
Invested
$1,678.35
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$19.45
Record
49%
104-109 (213)
ReformedxInvested
$1,295.01
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$304.04
Record
51%
870-839 (1709)
Invested
$928.2
Value
$799.65
PnL
-$128.55
Record
46%
5200-6047 (11247)
nigiri99ARB<$100Invested
$568.02
Value
$587.05
PnL
+$19.03
Record
46%
8591-10242 (18833)
Both legs:
Invested
$581.36
Value
$430.9
PnL
-$150.46
Record
49%
6287-6447 (12734)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$1,124.92
Value
$270.83
PnL
-$16.12
Record
58%
46667-33629 (80296)
Both legs:
Invested
$394.14
Value
$235.16
PnL
-$68.48
Record
48%
61036-65868 (126904)
poshposhCTRInvested
$220.49
Value
$234.27
PnL
+$13.78
Record
57%
12692-9758 (22450)
Invested
$234.02
Value
$231.34
PnL
-$2.69
Record
50%
1313-1295 (2608)
Invested
$273.47
Value
$230.11
PnL
-$43.36
Record
50%
1380-1390 (2770)
Invested
$242.97
Value
$213.24
PnL
-$29.73
Record
50%
25811-25501 (51312)
Both legs:
Invested
$281.37
Value
$201.65
PnL
-$79.71
Record
53%
1413-1258 (2671)
Invested
$208.67
Value
$162.19
PnL
-$46.48
Record
52%
1365-1285 (2650)
Invested
$142.28
Value
$150.48
PnL
+$8.2
Record
53%
16798-14919 (31717)
Invested
$82
Value
$73
PnL
-$9
Record
47%
11685-13388 (25073)
Invested
$26.55
Value
$24.3
PnL
-$0.23
Record
51%
37659-36887 (74546)
Invested
$14.26
Value
$11.63
PnL
-$2.64
Record
55%
9735-8124 (17859)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
1l2ihj34li12u34
AC Sparta Praha — $11.7K
ferrariChampions2026
AC Sparta Praha — $8.8K
omnibus-076daa
AC Sparta Praha — $4.0K
LuckyLoo
CTRAFC Bournemouth — $2.2K
GoalLineGhost
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Venusian
CTRAFC Bournemouth — $2.1K
yabanci
CTRAFC Bournemouth — $1.7K
ianf2026
CTRAFC Bournemouth — $1.7K
Reformedx
AC Sparta Praha — $1.6K