Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-11-05?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
$104.08
54.3¢ → 56.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Mature
32h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 54¢ | $225.11 | $2.1K | +$95.23 | 51% 23440-22208 (45648) |
 leflaive | Noavg 57¢ | $171 | $172.5 | +$1.5 | 42% 1206-1642 (2848) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 54¢ | $106.38 | $113.27 | +$6.9 | 51% 7362-7108 (14470) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $76.72 | $77.4 | +$0.68 | 47% 14435-15957 (30392) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Noavg 54.1¢ | $253.6 | $60.01 | -$1.58 | 58% 44724-32558 (77282) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54.1¢ | $32.44 | $33.9 | +$0.3 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44¢ | $26.4 | $26.1 | -$1.88 | |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $7.85 | $7.7 | -$0.24 | 53% 2337-2055 (4392) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $0.98 | $0.99 | +$0.01 | — |
Invested
$225.11
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$95.23
Record
51%
23440-22208 (45648)
leflaiveInvested
$171
Value
$172.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
42%
1206-1642 (2848)
HRTradingInvested
$106.38
Value
$113.27
PnL
+$6.9
Record
51%
7362-7108 (14470)
Invested
$76.72
Value
$77.4
PnL
+$0.68
Record
47%
14435-15957 (30392)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$253.6
Value
$60.01
PnL
-$1.58
Record
58%
44724-32558 (77282)
Both legs:
Invested
$7.85
Value
$7.7
PnL
-$0.24
Record
53%
2337-2055 (4392)
Invested
$0.98
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.