AC Milan vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 4.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 78¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 5

Over23¢Under77¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

-$37.36

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 77.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares9,267

Combined PnL-$14.37

Over5 traders

Total Value$231.66

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL-$22.99

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 76.9¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	-$16.69	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 76.8¢	$653.83	$638.45	-$11.12	50% 28410-28315 (56725)
0xheavy888	Underavg 75.2¢	$494.56	$509.95	+$15.39	56% 7908-6321 (14229)
nigiri99	Underavg 77.9¢	$316.37	$314.65	-$1.72	46% 8591-10242 (18833)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 77¢	$133.5	$133.12	-$0.37	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 26¢	$144.55	$125.09	-$19.46	50% 25811-25501 (51312)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 24.9¢	$96.08	$92.56	-$3.52	52% 1365-1285 (2650)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$5.67	$5.92	+$0.25	51% 37659-36887 (74546)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 24.9¢	$5.42	$5.22	-$0.2	51% 1371-1334 (2705)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 74¢	$4.24	$4.38	+$0.14	55% 9735-8124 (17859)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$2.75	$2.87	-$0.06	53% 2570-2251 (4821)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$6,046.7

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$16.69

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$653.83

Value

$638.45

PnL

-$11.12

Record

50%

28410-28315 (56725)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$494.56

Value

$509.95

PnL

+$15.39

Record

56%

7908-6321 (14229)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$316.37

Value

$314.65

PnL

-$1.72

Record

46%

8591-10242 (18833)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$133.5

Value

$133.12

PnL

-$0.37

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$144.55

Value

$125.09

PnL

-$19.46

Record

50%

25811-25501 (51312)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$96.08

Value

$92.56

PnL

-$3.52

Record

52%

1365-1285 (2650)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.92

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

37659-36887 (74546)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.42

Value

$5.22

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

1371-1334 (2705)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$4.24

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$0.14

Record

55%

9735-8124 (17859)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

2570-2251 (4821)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.