Exact Score: AC Milan 2 - 0 Ferencvárosi TC?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $662 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$662.39
$97.22
88.8¢ → 89¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 89¢ | $402.28 | $402.28 | +$0 | 50% 21143-21403 (42546) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $110 | +$96.11 | 28% 1133-2905 (4038) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $73.63 | $74.46 | +$0.84 | 51% 37655-36883 (74538) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $51.79 | $51.79 | +$0 | 64% 9911-5524 (15435) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $23.59 | $23.86 | +$0.27 | 51% 25691-24411 (50102) |
Invested
$402.28
Value
$402.28
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
21143-21403 (42546)
Invested
$13.89
Value
$110
PnL
+$96.11
Record
28%
1133-2905 (4038)
Invested
$73.63
Value
$74.46
PnL
+$0.84
Record
51%
37655-36883 (74538)
Invested
$51.79
Value
$51.79
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
9911-5524 (15435)
Invested
$23.59
Value
$23.86
PnL
+$0.27
Record
51%
25691-24411 (50102)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.