Will AC Milan vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 84¢ · $747 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$747.14
-$0.82
82.2¢ → 83.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 82¢ | $260.01 | $214.51 | +$1.3 | 53% 16647-14800 (31447) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 82¢ | $123.4 | $124.17 | +$0.77 | 64% 9839-5498 (15337) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 17.7¢ | $120.35 | $119.02 | -$1.33 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $286.95 | $114.63 | +$0.59 | 48% 60745-65398 (126143) |
HI hi774c<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $54.6 | $54.6 | -$0 | 46% 5077-5888 (10965) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 83.7¢ | $49.39 | $49.27 | -$0.12 | 50% 21104-21351 (42455) |
SE sentrioCTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $217.59 | $38.08 | -$1.09 | 50% 25741-25428 (51169) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $114.5 | $20.04 | -$0.57 | 50% 1297-1284 (2581) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $13.2 | $12.83 | -$0.37 | 48% 7320-7822 (15142) |
Invested
$260.01
Value
$214.51
PnL
+$1.3
Record
53%
16647-14800 (31447)
Invested
$123.4
Value
$124.17
PnL
+$0.77
Record
64%
9839-5498 (15337)
Invested
$120.35
Value
$119.02
PnL
-$1.33
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$286.95
Value
$114.63
PnL
+$0.59
Record
48%
60745-65398 (126143)
Invested
$54.6
Value
$54.6
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
5077-5888 (10965)
Invested
$49.39
Value
$49.27
PnL
-$0.12
Record
50%
21104-21351 (42455)
Invested
$217.59
Value
$38.08
PnL
-$1.09
Record
50%
25741-25428 (51169)
Invested
$114.5
Value
$20.04
PnL
-$0.57
Record
50%
1297-1284 (2581)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$12.83
PnL
-$0.37
Record
48%
7320-7822 (15142)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.