Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-11-05?

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 88¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 5

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.1K

Combined PnL

$86.06

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 87.5¢

-1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 88%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$20.5K

Total Shares22,341

Combined PnL+$68.77

Yes5 traders

Total Value$487.79

Total Shares4,061

Combined PnL+$17.29

No — 74%Yes — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XW xwingboy	Noavg 88.5¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	-$57.33	66% 336-175 (511)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 86.9¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$41.95	51% 25751-24453 (50204)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 89¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$0	67% 2798-1381 (4179)
NM NM-P	Noavg 88.1¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$8.32	64% 9927-5528 (15455)
GC GC-P	Noavg 88.1¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$9.56	64% 9969-5596 (15565)
CA Cannae	Noavg 87¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$27.11	53% 16808-14936 (31744)
RN1	Noavg 87¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$25.28	53% 61368-53685 (115053)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 88¢	$814.88	$824.12	+$13.88	50% 28428-28335 (56763)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 88¢	$559.46	$565.82	+$3.18	51% 37668-36894 (74562)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 89¢	$533.99	$524.99	-$9	51% 1900-1851 (3751)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 88.9¢	$902.31	$469.44	+$5.06	58% 46694-33653 (80347)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Yesavg 11¢	$311.2	$325.35	+$14.15	50% 2732-2712 (5444)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$210.24	$184.31	-$0.11	48% 61176-65982 (127158)
└ No leg	Noavg 88.1¢	$139.13	$139.81	+$0.95
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11.8¢	$45.57	$44.51	-$1.06
OD OddstormCTR	Yesavg 12.2¢	$131.27	$134.6	+$3.34	48% 7398-7930 (15328)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 88.6¢	$62.47	$61.69	-$0.78	50% 1324-1301 (2625)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 87¢	$49	$50	+$1	51% 6347-6131 (12478)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$31.87	$32.04	+$0.54	49% 3326-3529 (6855)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$28.13	$20.01	-$0.2	55% 9738-8127 (17865)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$5.28	$5.5	+$0.22	49% 3217-3389 (6606)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$2.55	$2.33	-$0.21	50% 25823-25522 (51345)

xwingboy

Invested

$4,937.21

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$57.33

Record

66%

336-175 (511)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,790.16

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$41.95

Record

51%

25751-24453 (50204)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,669.98

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

67%

2798-1381 (4179)

NM-P

Invested

$2,233.86

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$8.32

Record

64%

9927-5528 (15455)

GC-P

Invested

$2,146.23

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$9.56

Record

64%

9969-5596 (15565)

Cannae

Invested

$2,013.72

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$27.11

Record

53%

16808-14936 (31744)

RN1

Invested

$1,099.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$25.28

Record

53%

61368-53685 (115053)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$814.88

Value

$824.12

PnL

+$13.88

Record

50%

28428-28335 (56763)

SnakeBall

Invested

$559.46

Value

$565.82

PnL

+$3.18

Record

51%

37668-36894 (74562)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$533.99

Value

$524.99

PnL

-$9

Record

51%

1900-1851 (3751)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$902.31

Value

$469.44

PnL

+$5.06

Record

58%

46694-33653 (80347)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Yes

Invested

$311.2

Value

$325.35

PnL

+$14.15

Record

50%

2732-2712 (5444)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$210.24

Value

$184.31

PnL

-$0.11

Record

48%

61176-65982 (127158)

Both legs:

Invested

$131.27

Value

$134.6

PnL

+$3.34

Record

48%

7398-7930 (15328)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$62.47

Value

$61.69

PnL

-$0.78

Record

50%

1324-1301 (2625)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$49

Value

$50

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

6347-6131 (12478)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

$31.87

Value

$32.04

PnL

+$0.54

Record

49%

3326-3529 (6855)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.13

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$0.2

Record

55%

9738-8127 (17865)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

3217-3389 (6606)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

25823-25522 (51345)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 88%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.