Will MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-11-05?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 55¢ · $879 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$879.24
$2.83
54.1¢ → 54.5¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 54.3¢ | $339.21 | $337.1 | -$2.12 | 64% 9921-5527 (15448) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 54¢ | $297.3 | $300.05 | +$2.75 | 64% 9962-5595 (15557) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 53¢ | $169.07 | $112.32 | +$3.19 | 58% 46675-33635 (80310) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 53.5¢ | $53.5 | $54.5 | +$1 | 48% 61037-65871 (126908) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 56.2¢ | $30.82 | $29.59 | -$1.23 | 51% 1376-1340 (2716) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $27.29 | $26.68 | -$0.61 | 51% 25736-24442 (50178) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $8.84 | $8.64 | -$0.2 | 53% 1421-1264 (2685) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $6.23 | $6.23 | +$0 | 50% 25814-25509 (51323) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $4.09 | $4.14 | +$0.05 | 53% 16798-14919 (31717) |
Invested
$339.21
Value
$337.1
PnL
-$2.12
Record
64%
9921-5527 (15448)
Invested
$297.3
Value
$300.05
PnL
+$2.75
Record
64%
9962-5595 (15557)
VeryLucky888Invested
$169.07
Value
$112.32
PnL
+$3.19
Record
58%
46675-33635 (80310)
Invested
$53.5
Value
$54.5
PnL
+$1
Record
48%
61037-65871 (126908)
Invested
$30.82
Value
$29.59
PnL
-$1.23
Record
51%
1376-1340 (2716)
Invested
$27.29
Value
$26.68
PnL
-$0.61
Record
51%
25736-24442 (50178)
Invested
$8.84
Value
$8.64
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
1421-1264 (2685)
Invested
$6.23
Value
$6.23
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
25814-25509 (51323)
Invested
$4.09
Value
$4.14
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
16798-14919 (31717)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.