Crystal Palace FC vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 65¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 5

Over65¢Under35¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$116.98

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 64.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares7,407

Combined PnL+$76.9

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,059

Combined PnL+$40.08

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (10 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DV dv-pm	Overavg 64¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$43.46	49% 3325-3528 (6853)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 65.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$45.12	50% 28410-28315 (56725)
MR MrBently	Overavg 66¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$0	52% 597-541 (1138)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 33.5¢	$771.26	$791.24	+$19.98	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.5¢	$403.02	$426.69	+$23.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 65.2¢	$368.24	$364.56	-$3.69
OD Oddstorm	Overavg 67.1¢	$424.88	$414.62	-$10.27	48% 7398-7927 (15325)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 35.1¢	$396.88	$401.15	+$4.27	53% 1413-1258 (2671)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 33¢	$186.65	$200.56	+$13.91	64% 9921-5525 (15446)
timebrotime	Overavg 67.1¢	$203.4	$198.48	-$4.92	67% 989-478 (1467)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 33.5¢	$298.93	$187.78	+$12.81	58% 46667-33629 (80296)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 33¢	$173.25	$178.5	+$5.25	64% 9962-5593 (15555)
PU purplegatto	Overavg 65.2¢	$103.29	$104.64	+$3.96	49% 6287-6447 (12734)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Underavg 34.1¢	$99.51	$102.8	+$3.28	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.1¢	$50.37	$52.49	+$2.11
└ Over leg	Overavg 63¢	$49.14	$50.31	+$1.17
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$72.34	$75.39	+$3.04	50% 25811-25501 (51312)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 65.2¢	$59.29	$60.06	-$0.46	46% 8591-10242 (18833)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$39.24	$39.8	+$0.56	51% 1898-1850 (3748)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 34.1¢	$5.64	$5.87	+$0.23	55% 9735-8124 (17859)

dv-pm

Over

Invested

$1,854.24

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$43.46

Record

49%

3325-3528 (6853)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,175.79

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$45.12

Record

50%

28410-28315 (56725)

MrBently

Over

Invested

$1,003.04

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$771.26

Value

$791.24

PnL

+$19.98

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

Both legs:

Under$403.0233.5¢+$23.67

Over$368.2465.2¢-$3.69

Oddstorm

Over

Invested

$424.88

Value

$414.62

PnL

-$10.27

Record

48%

7398-7927 (15325)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$396.88

Value

$401.15

PnL

+$4.27

Record

53%

1413-1258 (2671)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$186.65

Value

$200.56

PnL

+$13.91

Record

64%

9921-5525 (15446)

timebrotime

Over

Invested

$203.4

Value

$198.48

PnL

-$4.92

Record

67%

989-478 (1467)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$298.93

Value

$187.78

PnL

+$12.81

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$173.25

Value

$178.5

PnL

+$5.25

Record

64%

9962-5593 (15555)

purplegatto

Over

Invested

$103.29

Value

$104.64

PnL

+$3.96

Record

49%

6287-6447 (12734)

CannaeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$99.51

Value

$102.8

PnL

+$3.28

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

Both legs:

Under$50.3734.1¢+$2.11

Over$49.1463¢+$1.17

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72.34

Value

$75.39

PnL

+$3.04

Record

50%

25811-25501 (51312)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$59.29

Value

$60.06

PnL

-$0.46

Record

46%

8591-10242 (18833)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.24

Value

$39.8

PnL

+$0.56

Record

51%

1898-1850 (3748)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.64

Value

$5.87

PnL

+$0.23

Record

55%

9735-8124 (17859)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (10 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.