Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (78%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 5.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 23¢ · $620 held · ends Nov 5

Over23¢Under77¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$619.69

Combined PnL

$1.01

Smart Money Entry

21.1¢ → 22.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$341.86

Total Shares431

Combined PnL+$6.04

Over5 traders

Total Value$277.83

Total Shares1,343

Combined PnL-$5.04

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 78¢	$195	$198.75	+$3.75	56% 7908-6321 (14229)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 21.5¢	$125.83	$120.23	-$5.61	50% 1313-1295 (2608)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 21.1¢	$111.47	$108.45	-$3.02	53% 1413-1258 (2671)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 78¢	$95.94	$97.79	+$1.85	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 18.1¢	$23.13	$28.83	+$5.7	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 78¢	$22.62	$23.06	+$0.44	55% 9735-8124 (17859)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 22.9¢	$21.29	$19.09	-$2.2	52% 1365-1285 (2650)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 77¢	$16.74	$16.85	+$0.11	58% 46667-33629 (80296)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 78.9¢	$5.52	$5.43	-$0.1	46% 8591-10242 (18833)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$1.14	$1.23	+$0.09	50% 28410-28315 (56725)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$195

Value

$198.75

PnL

+$3.75

Record

56%

7908-6321 (14229)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$125.83

Value

$120.23

PnL

-$5.61

Record

50%

1313-1295 (2608)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$111.47

Value

$108.45

PnL

-$3.02

Record

53%

1413-1258 (2671)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$95.94

Value

$97.79

PnL

+$1.85

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.13

Value

$28.83

PnL

+$5.7

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$22.62

Value

$23.06

PnL

+$0.44

Record

55%

9735-8124 (17859)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.29

Value

$19.09

PnL

-$2.2

Record

52%

1365-1285 (2650)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$16.74

Value

$16.85

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$5.52

Value

$5.43

PnL

-$0.1

Record

46%

8591-10242 (18833)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

28410-28315 (56725)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.